The race against the virus that causes COVID-19 has taken a new turn: Mutations are rapidly shooting up , and therefore the longer it takes to vaccinate people, the more likely it’s that a variant which will elude current tests, treatments and vaccines could emerge.
The coronavirus is becoming more genetically diverse, and health officials say the high rate of latest cases is that the main reason. Each new infection gives the virus an opportunity to mutate because it makes copies of itself, threatening to undo the progress made thus far to regulate the pandemic.
On Friday, the planet Health Organization urged more effort to detect new variants. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said a replacement version first identified within the uk may become dominant within the U.S. by March. Although it doesn’t cause more severe illness, it’ll cause more hospitalizations and deaths simply because it spreads far more easily, said the CDC, warning of “a new phase of exponential growth.”
“We got to do everything we will now … to urge transmission as low as we possibly can,” said Harvard University’s Dr. Michael Mina. “The best thanks to prevent mutant strains from emerging is to slow transmission.”
So far, vaccines seem to stay effective, but there are signs that a number of the new mutations may undermine tests for the virus and reduce the effectiveness of antibody drugs as treatments.
“We’re during a race against time” because the virus “may encounter a mutation” that creates it more dangerous, said Dr. Pardis Sabeti, an evolutionary biologist at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard.
Younger people could also be less willing to wear masks, shun crowds and take other steps to avoid infection because the present strain doesn’t seem to form them very sick, but “in one mutational change, it might,” she warned. Sabeti documented a change within the Ebola virus during the 2014 outbreak that made it much worse.
Mutations on the increase
It’s normal for viruses to accumulate small changes or mutations in their genetic alphabet as they reproduce. Ones that help the virus flourish provides it a competitive advantage and thus displace other versions.
In March, just a few of months after the coronavirus was discovered in China, a mutation called D614G emerged that made it more likely to spread. It soon became the dominant version within the world.
Now, after months of relative calm, “we’ve began to see some striking evolution” of the virus, biologist Trevor Bedford of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer research facility in Seattle wrote on Twitter last week. “The incontrovertible fact that we’ve observed three variants of concern emerge since September suggests that there are likely more to return .”
One was first identified within the uk and quickly became dominant in parts of England. it’s now been reported in a minimum of 30 countries, including the us .
Soon afterward, South Africa and Brazil reported new variants, and therefore the main mutation within the version identified in Britain turned abreast of a special version “that’s been circulating in Ohio … a minimum of as far back as September,” said Dr. Dan Jones, a molecular pathologist at Ohio State University who announced that finding last week.
“The important finding here is that this is often unlikely to be travel-related” and instead may reflect the virus acquiring similar mutations independently as more infections occur, Jones said.
That also suggests that travel restrictions could be ineffective, Mina said. Because the us has numerous cases, “we can breed our own variants that are even as bad or worse” as those in other countries, he said.
Treatment, vaccine, reinfection risks
Some lab tests suggest the variants identified in South Africa and Brazil could also be less vulnerable to antibody drugs or convalescent plasma, antibody-rich blood from COVID-19 survivors — both of which help people repel the virus.
Government scientists are “actively looking” into that possibility, Dr. Janet Woodcock of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration told reporters Thursday. the govt is encouraging development of multi-antibody treatments instead of single-antibody drugs to possess more ways to focus on the virus just in case one proves ineffective, she said.
Current vaccines induce broad enough immune responses that they ought to remain effective, many scientists say. Enough genetic change eventually may require tweaking the vaccine formula, but “it’s likely to get on the order of years if we use the vaccine well instead of months,” Dr. Andrew Pavia of the University of Utah said Thursday on a webcast hosted by the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
Health officials also worry that if the virus changes enough, people might get COVID-19 a second time. Reinfection currently is rare, but Brazil already confirmed a case in someone with a replacement variant who had been sickened with a previous version several months earlier.
What to do
“We’re seeing tons of variants, viral diversity, because there’s tons of virus out there,” and reducing new infections is that the best thanks to curb it, said Dr. Adam Lauring, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor .
Loyce Pace, who heads the nonprofit Global Health Council and may be a member of President-elect Joe Biden’s COVID-19 planning board , said an equivalent precautions scientists are advising right along “still work and that they still matter.”
We still want people to be masking up,” she said Thursday on a webcast hosted by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
“We still need people to limit congregating with people outside their household. We still need people to be washing their hands and really being vigilant about those public health practices, especially as these variants emerge.”